Forecasting Ice-Affected Rivers at the Northeast River Forecast Center

Each winter and early spring, the Northeast River Forecast Center (NERFC) faces the challenge of forecasting river stage and flow for ice affected rivers. “Stage versus flow” relationships tend to be in error and there is a lack of real-time information about the nature of the ice cover. The NERFC is investigating methods to forecast river stage and flow for ice-affected rivers because in times of ice-related flooding it may be useful to utilize the observed stage to assist in forecasting flood severity. The current technique without a river ice forecast model requires considerable human judgment and assumptions relying on forecaster expertise. Implementation of a river ice forecast model for the National Weather Service (NWS) could assist forecasters confirm their assumptions of river ice conditions and increase their confidence in providing a more reliable forecast when the rivers are affected by ice.